Prognoza demograficzna dla Krakowa - metoda badań

Demographic forecast for Cracow - research method

Summary: The demographic forecast conducted includes three sub-populations: 1. inhabitants declaring permanent settlement, 2. inhabitants declaring temporary settlement, 3. constant migration. The three elements influencing the demographic dynamics in Cracow will cause a constant increase in population from 749.2 thousand in 1998 to the level of 808.7 thousand in 2018.The sub-population of the permanent inhabitants, after a periodical increase, will feature a visible decrease, which will lead to significant demographic losses, as well as a shift of large age groups from the demographic peak of the period after World War II to the senior citizens group. In relation to the 'university' age reached by the age groups from the early 1980s, as well as due to the education reform, one may expect a large increase in temporary inhabitants for a period longer than two months, especially in the first decade of the next century (Table 1). The post-migration forecast of permanent inhabitants assumes a slow increase in the number of people migrating, and the migration balance (Table 1), which is associated with a significant dynamics of migration due to social transformation and the economic policy of the country.

Kortus B. (red.), 2001, Człowiek i Przestrzeń, IGiGP UJ, Kraków, ss. 228, s. 89-97.

Instytut Geografii i Gospodarki Przestrzennej UJ

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